Methodology & The Math Behind FIRE
The Trinity Study & 4% Rule
Our Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) logic is rooted in the widely cited 1998 Trinity Study. It dictates that withdrawing 4% of your portfolio annually, adjusted for inflation, historically yields a 95%+ success rate of never depleting your assets over a 30-year retirement period.
Inflation-Adjusted Growth
The default 7% expected return is a real return metric. We assume a historical S&P 500 average return of 10%, minus a 3% average inflation rate. This ensures your Target FIRE Number retains its true purchasing power in future decades.